Will Girling asks industry stakeholders whether improving one key technology could make EVs cheaper, better, and more appealing products
In recent years, the global automotive industry has experienced a rapid surge in electric vehicle (EV) adoption. According to data from Statista, sales went from 3.2 million in 2020 to 13.4 million in 2023—a 319% rise. However, while individual countries like China and Norway continue to make prolific gains, customer uptake across regions like North America and Europe is slowing down. By the end of 2024, worldwide sales are expected to top off at a relatively stagnant 13.7 million.
Now that the growth opportunities driven by premium-spec early adopters have reached their limit, manufacturers must turn to the mass market. EY Mobility’s 2024 Global Mobility Consumer Index indicates that the next generation of EVs must factor in practicality, total cost of ownership, and resale value to capture consumers’ interest. However, the technological roadmap that could offer the fastest route to this objective is far from clear.
To provide the market with a truly next-gen product, automakers will need to make EVs easier to produce, cheaper to sell, and just as convenient to drive as an internal combustion engine (ICE) model. Automotive World consulted subject experts across a variety of industry segments to discover the answer to one question: is there a single key technology that will help take EVs fully into the mainstream?
The majority say…
Jingping Jiang, Product Manager of Geely International EV Lineup: Though the adoption rate of EVs is increasing rapidly, they still have a long way to go before becoming the mainstream option. The most important thing is to improve the driving and riding experience while decreasing the cost of choosing and using. Therefore, battery technology is crucial to EV adoption.
Battery lifespan is a big concern for consumers: an EV’s value might rapidly depreciate after purchase. Geely is resolving this issue in models like the EX5 with short blade technology that provides up to 3,500 charging cycles—equivalent to driving one million kilometres—with minimal impact on range. This significantly extends the usage of the battery and improves the residual value of used cars.
To surpass the ICE vehicle’s driving experience, the battery must provide robust and steady energy to the electric motor to make powerful, smooth driving possible. Advanced battery technology will also require both higher energy density and faster charging speeds to help eliminate consumer range anxiety.
Theodora Preda, Principal at venture capital firm Plug and Play Tech Center: The EV transition process is taking longer than we anticipated because the charging experience is still not as convenient as refuelling with gasoline. Taking 20 minutes to charge 80% is a long time, and batteries are probably the single most important technology for improving and resolving this issue.
The industry needs to make charge times less than ten minutes, and players around the world are already announcing new cells that can accomplish this. Some prominent examples in the start-up space are the UK’s Nyobolt and Israel’s Storedot, and we’ll need these breakthroughs to catch customers’ attention and hopefully inspire future EV purchase. But it’s not just a question of chemistry or how cells are manufactured and packaged; software and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions can help optimise the performance of batteries we already have today.
On the other hand, retaining current chemistries does still present some associated dangers, like overheating during fast charging. The development of batteries and charging technology is very much interlinked, but better and more cost-effective batteries will have a more direct impact on boosting EV attractiveness. Solid-state batteries (SSBs) could be the answer, although high development costs make it likely that an incumbent will provide the breakthrough, not a start-up.
Janani Neelakantan, Automotive Technical Manager at engineering services company Actalent: If manufacturers can resolve the issues of scalability and affordability, innovations in SSBs are poised to catapult EVs towards mainstream adoption. Supply chain issues aside, traditional lithium-ion batteries are hamstrung by their use of liquid electrolytes: slow to charge and notoriously prone to fires. Conversely, SSBs are equipped to charge at nearly triple the rate while also drastically reducing safety concerns. Expect to see SSBs make their mark on the EV market in the next few years once automakers’ R&D is actualised.
Harald Proff, Partner and Global Automotive Sector Leader at Deloitte: There’s no doubt that smaller batteries with higher range for a lower cost will be the crucial technological development. However, this next generation of batteries will still need to be supported by charging solutions that work for everyone’s circumstances and an attractive resale value proposition. Without factoring in all three elements together, even customers who really want to purchase an EV will be discouraged.
Bringing some standardisation to EVs so that battery access is easier would certainly help the industry resolve the question of value. Instead of the ‘closed shop’ designs we’ve seen so far, a modular approach would allow the industry to reuse old batteries in energy storage applications and more easily substitute new ones, which would then give customers a more appealing used-EV market.
Some Chinese players have combined this easy access with charging to produce battery swap stations. The technology is cool, but it’s unclear whether the core economics—particularly the high capex of making and retaining lots of batteries—results in a viable business model. Ultimately, I think the technology that facilitates battery swapping could prove more valuable than the charging services built around it.
Counterpoint…
Dominic Vergine, Chief Executive of deeptech engineering company Monumo: EVs are fundamentally less complex than ICE models. That they’re currently more expensive simply reflects that development is still very early. I don’t necessarily believe in ‘magic bullet’ solutions, but I think AI is what might finally take EVs into the mainstream. By breaking down knowledge siloes and enabling engineers to simulate entire powertrains at once, AI will accelerate the development of new, more efficient and cost effective technology.
Bringing down costs and extending range will be the common targets for this use of AI, and research will be broken down into lots of focus areas. Batteries will obviously receive a lot of attention, but there also other important components like e-motors, which is where Monumo is focused. Even today, we can use AI to make an e-motor 10% cheaper while still boosting its overall performance. That rate of improvement will only become more significant, and the inflection point has already arrived. AI will permeate every aspect of EV manufacture over the next decade.
